Evaluating impact of new technologies on low voltage grids using probabilistic data enriched scenarios

In this paper a scenario-based method for long term load forecasting is proposed that incorporates the uncertainty and diversity in adoption of future developments in the evaluation and planning process of low voltage grids and that is able to account for local differences in expected loading. The approach incorporates the influence of local parameters in the scenarios using logistic regression based on data gathered from different sources. The method can be used to assess the resilience of low voltage grids under various different scenarios and assists grid planners in making informed investment decisions under uncertainty. It is designed such that it is open for addition of extra parameters and data to increase its robustness against a changing environment.