Reliable power supply capability analysis for electric distribution network including distributed generations based on probabilistic reliability

Distributed generation (DG) has developed rapidly in recent years, and its accession to electric distribution network has had significant impact on the power supply capability (PSC) of the network. Current studies on PSC have been based on deterministic security rules such as N-1 criterion while ignoring uncertain factors existing in the electric distribution network, and as a result, failing to quantitatively reflect the realistic PSC under a certain reliability level. However, the probabilistic reliability method can incorporate the random failure of components, and in particular, DGs. To explore the PSC of electric distribution network with DGs' accession, this paper presents the concept of reliable power supply capability (RPSC) and establishes the optimization model of RPSC from the perspective of probabilistic reliability. A case study tests the proposed model on an electric distribution network to demonstrate its applicability.