Infrastructure systems renewal and replacement model using probabilistic forecasting

Common approaches to addressing renewal and replacement rely on limited analysis of maintenance strategies and on deterministic approaches with finite, best approximation inputs. These over-simplified approaches yield results that greatly overestimate, or in many cases greatly underestimate, uncertainty and risk. Decision makers are often placed in a poor position to defend the annual budget as well as to properly program the needed capital investment to maintain and re-establish system reliability. Probabilistic analysis provides an alternative approach which clarifies uncertainty and risk in decision making.