A quantitative approach to physical security assessments for power & energy infrastructure

This paper presents a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of power and energy systems and components to weapons effects, accidental explosions, and attacks by terrorists, saboteurs, and vandals. The functioning of these systems depends on such devices and equipment as fuel tanks, pumps, transformers, control panels, insulators, wiring and piping, and generators. Damage mechanisms for components such as these and the means to determine their occurrence for specific components and threats are described herein. The damage mechanisms considered include those associated with airblast, shock, cratering, ballistic impact, penetration, and fire threats, although the methodology could be extended to include a broader spectrum of threats including cyber, electromagnetic, hostile vehicle etc. To facilitate assessment of the sorts of infrastructure elements that are used by power generation and energy transmission utilities, a damage function for individual components is introduced. For example, the damage function can provide a means to estimate the level of damage incurred by various equipment as a function of their distance from the point of detonation, and the size and type of the explosive used. This function may be incorporated as part of an assessment code, or it may also be used as a standalone means to estimate damage for a specific utility component, such as described in [2].