Vessel traffic flow prediction model based on complex network

A complex network structure can describe many real systems, ports system meet characteristics of complex network system. This paper built a new weighted port evolutional network model using vessel traffic flow as the relevance rating affecting port evolution, on the basis of this. It proposed a port vessel traffic flow forecasting model based on complex networks and used vessel traffic volume of Tianjin Port during 2002–2013 years as the experimental data and ultimately verified and predicted it through the use of forecasting model parameters obtained by fitting port network kinetic equations and numerical, as a result, the error between the experimental results calculated by model and actual data is 4.95%, and the average prediction error during 2009–2013 is less than 2%, the fitting of parameters in this model needed to be supported by historical data, so this model is only applicable in short-term prediction with high accuracy.