A conceptual third party risk model for personal and unmanned aerial vehicles

A conceptual third party risk (TPR) model is developed, implemented, and tested to demonstrate the capability of determining the risk to the population in a metropolitan city exposed to personal aerial vehicles (PAVs) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) traffic operations. The conceptual model that is primarily based on the methodology and experience of risk modelling for conventional aircraft is modified and the parameters are adjusted suitable for a determination of risk in the arrival, departure and cruise phase of flight for those new aircraft types. Without the availability of the empirical accident data of these aircraft, however, a validation of the conceptual model is not possible. For the purpose of comparison of different future operation concepts and different scenarios in a metropolitan area the model suffices the need. Two examples of operation concepts and traffic scenarios for PAV and UAV aircraft movements, respectively, are demonstrated.