Identification of Unavoidable Branch Limit Violations Due to Wind Forecast Errors

One role of grid operators is to identify potential problems before they occur and, if necessary, take preemptive actions. As wind generation becomes increasingly widespread, there is the potential for credible, simultaneous fluctuations of output at different locations to result in limit violations. Existing analysis methods that consider forecast errors either inadequately model the control responses available to system operators (e.g., using participation factors) or ignore network constraints, which limits their utility in identifying situations that would require operator action. An alternative method of handling forecast errors, utilizing bilevel programming, is proposed here to identify situations that may result in branch overloads. What distinguishes this method from prior approaches is that it only identifies overloads that can occur despite optimal operator reaction to forecast errors--i.e., when the overload is unavoidable, given current control capabilities. Studies conducted on 37- and 118-bus test systems demonstrate both the utility and feasibility of using this method for online operations.