An economic valuation of solar energy potential in Nigeria

Nigeria has a population of over 160 million, and just over 50% have electricity access. Many initiatives promote solar energy development to mitigate Nigeria's power challenges. This work shows an economic valuation of the solar photovoltaic (PV) potential in Nigeria. Assuming a 100 megawatts (MW) capacity upgrade, this paper compares distributed residential-scale and centralized utility-scale PV configurations. Metrics such as levelized cost of energy (LCOE), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), net present value (NPV), and payback period, are assessed. Results show no possibility of payback under 2013 PV panel cost assumptions in either case. However, assuming analysts' expected 2016 panel prices, payback opportunities as early as 9 years arise in both cases. Using Monte Carlo simulation, average values for LCOE and BCR were $0.2109 kWh
^-1
and 2.164, respectively, for residential PV and $0.1888 kWh
^-1
and 2.345, respectively, for utility PV. It is recommended that government provide PV implementation incentives that directly tackle initial solar project costs. Future work includes the application of optimization theory to find conditions for which LCOE and payback period are minimized while BCR and NPV are maximized.