Simple rules for identifying students on the edge

Students seeking enrolment into the bachelor of engineering at Victoria University of Wellington are required to gain a B average across their first year engineering papers in order to gain entry into second year. We explore longitudinal historical data in order to predict student progress using their grades from the end of the first trimester. We find that a simple classifier based on the number of A grades a student receives in the first trimester can predict which students are likely to gain entry, be near the borderline, or fall short.