An Adaptive Prognostic Approach via Nonlinear Degradation Modeling: Application to Battery Data

Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation via degradation modeling is considered as one of the most central components in prognostics and health management. Current RUL estimation studies mainly focus on linear stochastic models, and the results under nonlinear models are relatively limited in literature. Even in nonlinear degradation modeling, the estimated RUL is aimed at a population of systems of the same type or depend only on the current degradation observation. In this paper, an adaptive and nonlinear prognostic model is presented to estimate RUL using a system's history of the observed data to date. Specifically, a general nonlinear stochastic process with a time-dependent drift coefficient is first adopted to characterize the dynamics and nonlinearity of the degradation process. In order to render the RUL estimation depending on the degradation history to date, a state-space model is constructed, and Kalman filtering is applied to update one key parameter in the drifting function through treating this parameter as an unobserved state variable. To update the hidden state and other parameters in the state-space model simultaneously and recursively, the expectation maximization algorithm is used in conjunction with Kalman smoother to achieve this aim. The probability density function of the estimated RUL is derived with an explicit form, and some commonly used results under linear models turn out to be its special cases. Finally, the implementation of the presented approach is illustrated by numerical simulations, and an application for estimating the RUL of lithium-ion batteries is used to demonstrate the superiority of the method.