Prearranged power failure modeling for distribution network reliability evaluation

Evaluation of the distribution network's reliability with the consideration of the impacts of prearranged power failure is studied in the paper. Prearranged power failure are classified into two types according to their natures and each of them is modeled to predict its failure rates for distribution network reliability evaluation. Prearranged power failure due to power component maintenance is modeled based on the fact that that the relationship between component's service time and failure rate follows the bathtub curve, and prearranged power failure due to power component capacity expansion is based on the fact that capacity expansion of a component is much depended on its average load rate, peak load, yearly increment of average load rate, and yearly increment of peak load. Three kinds of ways to decide which loads to be transferred are proposed and the impacts of their ways on distribution network's reliability are compared. The case study shows that the proposed methods are effective in distribution network's reliability evaluation and various load transfer have different impacts on distribution network's reliability.