Equipment support resources forecasting method research based on the uncertainty of equipment operation activities' time sequence

Equipment operation activities in the phase of in-service will become more complex due to the high complexity of modern equipment, and thus produce the pressure on working of support resources allocation and support system design in the phase of design and development. Base on the uncertainty of equipment operation activities' time Sequence in in-service phase, in order to give a reliable result to support resources forecasting before deployment, and improve the efficiency of support system design further, starting from equipment mission, the calculation methods of operational support activities, corrective maintenance support activities and preventive maintenance activities frequencies are given in this article, then all the support activities are defined and classified according to their hierarchical structures, which comprise of three types: event-level support activities, action-level support activities and task-level support activities; then with the input data from supportability analysis results and activities data and logical relation in operation activities modeling, from two types of resources of consumed and occupied in operational and maintenance activities, the processes and methods of summarizing layer by layer based on functional block diagram are given respectively, that is, the bottom activities of the action-level directly get the quantity of resources from task-level activities, transferring the data to the directly linked activities in the upper layer after computing in its layer with logical relation, and reach the event-level activities as iterative method, finally all of data form three types of support activities will be calculated into a value; independent activities and linked activities must be considered and distinguished when dealing with occupied resources, meanwhile, the two principles of calculations are given as shortest working time and least resources; Finally, the practical application of case are given to verify the rationality and applicability of the forecasting method, and provide theoretical guidance and technical support for support resources allocation, support system design and equipment support improvement in a further step.