Ambulatory estimation of human circadian phase using models of varying complexity based on non-invasive signal modalities

In this work, we introduce a number of models for human circadian phase estimation in ambulatory conditions using various sensor modalities. Machine learning techniques have been applied to ambulatory recordings of wrist actigraphy, light exposure, electrocardiograms (ECG), and distal and proximal skin temperature to develop ARMAX models capturing the main signal dependencies on circadian phase and evaluating them versus melatonin onset times. The most accurate models extracted heart rate variability features from an ECG coupled with wrist activity information to produce phase estimations with prediction errors of ~30 minutes. Replacing the ECG features with skin temperature from the upper leg led to a slight degradation, while less accurate results, in the order of 1 hour, were obtained from wrist activity and light measurements. The trade-off between highest precision and least obtrusive configuration is discussed for applications to sleep and mood disorders caused by a misalignment of the internal phase with the external solar and social times.