Dynamie neural networks for jet engine degradation prediction and prognosis

In this paper, fault prognosis of aircraft jet engines are considered using computationally intelligent-based methodologies to ensure flight safety and performance. Two different dynamic neural networks namely, the nonlinear autoregressive neural networks with exogenous input (NARX) and the Elman neural networks are developed and designed for this purpose. The proposed dynamic neural networks are designed to capture the dynamics of two main degradations in the jet engine, namely the compressor fouling and the turbine erosion. The health status and condition of the engine is then predicted subject to occurrence of these deteriorations. In both proposed approaches, two scenarios are considered. For each scenario, several neural networks are trained and their performance in predicting multi-flights ahead turbine output temperature are evaluated. Finally, the most suitable neural network for prediction is selected by using the normalized Bayesian information criterion model selection. Simulation results presented demonstrate and illustrate the effective performance of our proposed neural network-based prediction and prognosis strategies.