A stochastic discrete event simulator for effects-based planning

In this system oriented paper we describe the architectural framework and information flow model of a stochastic discrete event simulator for evaluating military operational plans. The simulator is tailored for Effect-based Planning where the outcome of a plan is compared with a desired end state. The simulator evaluates several alternative plans and identifies those that are closest to the desired end state. As a test case we use a scenario which has been developed by the Swedish Armed Forces in their Combined Joint Staff Exercises. The scenario is carried out in a fictitious country called Bogaland. The simulator focuses on separation of military scenario data (implemented as an XML-model) and military action logic (implemented as a rule based engine). By separating scenario data from actors' behavior rules the modeling task becomes easier for subject matter experts. The results show that alternative plans can be identified based on efficiency and effectiveness.