Ad hoc modeling, expert problem solving, and R&T program evaluation

This paper describes how a network of (or a single) personal computers may be used in system performance improvement/configuration modification analyses in a manner that ameliorates several of the classical shortcomings of conventional quantitative methodologies. Specifically, the Simplified Cost and Time (SCAT) approach used here permits 1) a quick and simple way of determining the impact of changed requirements/configurations on a system's performance. 2) In addition, the following items that are so critical to a successful program appraisal methodology: a) expert and/or group (rather than computerized) problem solving where professional judgment plays a central role; b) direct participation of a single decision maker or a group of decision makers in the design, development, implementation, and results analysis of the methodology — all within a matter of hours — (i.e., it permits ad hoc modeling, provided of course that the necessary data has already been collected); c) real-time, user-friendly man-machine dialogue; and d) program selection/evaluation methodology costs that are more than an order of magnitude lower than is possible under more conventional approaches such as in batch processing methodologies.