Radsim — A methodology for large-scale R&D program assessment

This paper outlines a methodology for the assessment of large-scale research and development programs that involve multiple research phases and parallel approaches. Among its capabilities, the assessment methodology assists in the estimation of the effect of alterative budget levels, allocation of resources within the total budget, and alternative management strategies on various measures of program success. The methodology accounts for cost, schedule, and performance uncertainties in the research process, as well as decisions to continue or terminate each research effort. A major innovation of the methodology is to provide a means for assessing the likelihood and impact on the overall program of technological breakthroughs. To demonstrate the use of this methodology, it is applied to an assessment of magnetic confinement fusion research programs. The methodology is shown to provide valuable insights for the management of large-scale programs.