Evaluating risks of copper depletion based on sustainability scenarios

Various sustainability scenarios visualize images of a sustainable society. For example, the IPCC's scenario aims to describe images of a low-carbon society. These sustainability scenarios often suppose introducing new technologies (e.g., electric vehicles (EVs)) to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the depletion risks of metals are not evaluated in those scenarios. This paper proposes a method to evaluate depletion risks of metals by estimating future metal consumption. We estimate the consumption considering three factors: (i) economic growth, (ii) diffusion of new products (e.g., EVs), and (iii) effect of recycling. As a case study, we take copper as an example metal and estimate copper consumption based on a long-term energy scenario. The results show that, although recycled copper reduces more than 20% of annual consumption, cumulative consumption surpasses the reserve base of copper by 2050.