Evaluating government policy on accelerating the use of LED lighting products using system dynamics modeling in Taiwan

In response to the environmental impact of climate change, carbon emissions reduction has become a common global goal. This goal has led to the formulation of policies and measures to meet carbon reduction targets in various countries. Therefore, the assessment of the effects of energy conservation and the reduction of carbon emissions is important for the promotion of policies and measures for carbon reduction. Using system dynamics modeling, this study evaluates the effects of reduced carbon emissions when switching to LED lighting. Unlike conventional light sources that save energy, LED lighting products reduce carbon emissions and have longer lives. In Taiwan, the promotion of such products will help achieve its carbon reduction target. However, because LED lighting products are more expensive than conventional lighting products, their use by the public remains limited. The government has therefore adopted certain policies to increase the usage of LED lighting products. This study uses a system dynamics model to simulate the consumption of LED lighting products in Taiwan and thus assess the effectiveness of government policy. The simulation results show that the government's promotion policies effectively increase domestic LED lighting usage and thereby help reduce carbon emissions. The Taiwanese government invested approximately NT$1,781.06 million during 2006~2011 to promote LED lighting applications through public procurement and research grants. During the same period, the accumulated use of LED lighting products increased by 24.3%, and thus, the average policy effectiveness was 0.42 lm/NT$ and NT$40.3 for each kilogram of carbon emissions reduced. We thus find that the higher the investment into procurement policy, the greater the effectiveness of increasing LED lighting products usage and decreasing carbon emissions.