Trade-off analysis of ROI for capability stepping-stones to a lunar habitat

As mankind continues to progress, a logical next step is the expansion into space. Independent space enterprises are developing capabilities to support: space tourism, space debris collection, low earth orbit (LEO) habitats, lunar visits, and temporary/permanent lunar habitats. The structure of the space market has created an industry structure such that activities are independent, are not coordinated, and do not consider leveraging adjacent capabilities. For example, insurance costs are determined based on individual capabilities and do not take into account synergies and liability mitigation to reduce risk from adjacent capabilities. This project evaluates the return on investment from coordination of activities to create “capability stepping-stones” from the five independent capabilities listed above to develop a lunar habitat. A decision support tool that utilizes discrete-event simulation was developed to estimate the ROI from alternate investment, direct operating, indirect costs, and revenues to determine cost, time, and risk thresholds to achieve ROI financial targets. This model is based on data from peer-reviewed government and industry sources such as DARPA, NASA, and the ESA and includes quarterly computation of Net Present Value (NPV). Data and inputs for the decision support tool were used where available. Trade-off analysis indicates the necessity of debris collection, and the importance of lowering launch costs on the development of space. One of the major factors achieved through capability stepping-stones is lowering of launch costs, insurance costs and reversal of the declining trend of LEO conditions. These results indicate an important role for international governance and collaboration between capability stepping-stones of the space-market place to maximize the potential of space.