A Markov Model Study on the Hierarchical Prognosis and Risk Factors in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

Background: The hierarchical prognosis and risk factors in patients with CKD is less well studied. Methods: 272 CKD patients were investigated. Markov model including six states [CKD1, CKD2, CKD3, CKD4, CKD5 as well as death/ end-stage renal disease (ESRD)] were established. Results: The mean follow-up was 2.0 years. The mean duration in state CKD1, CKD2, CKD3, CKD4 and CKD5 were 8.4 years, 5.8 years, 4.0 years, 1.8 years and 0.8 years respectively. Mean renal survival or dialysis-free period was 20.8 years. Multivariates analysis of Markov model showed the impact factors of prognosis. Conclusions: Evaluation of severity and the treatment of CKD patients should be made according to the prognosis and influencing factors of different states in CKD patients.