On the technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA)

There have been numerous technology forecasting methods which are competing in terms of the quality of forecasts that has been produced. Technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has also been a competing technique with its introductions in PICMET'01. After its introduction, TFDEA has been a favorable approach to obtain technological predictions. Positive results have been provided through a number of applications ranging from the first flights of aircrafts/jets to wireless technologies. “Dogfight” between TFDEA and some other forecasting methods has ended with the victory of TFDEA so far. Fundamental handicap of original TFDEA has been the employment of a constant rate of change which is obtained from historical data. However, accepting a constant change rate is somehow contrasting with the nature of technological change and may fail to forecast properly in long-run. In this respect, this paper focuses on mile-stone articles employing TFDEA and proposes better forecasts through some modifications on the existing handicap of TFDEA approach. The current works on the wireless technology forecast of CDMA technology has yielded promising results.