Applying optimal search theory to inland SAR: Steve Fossett case study

Steve Fossett, a famous adventurer, disappeared on 3 September 2007 in a remote area of Nevada during a solo pleasure flight in a small aircraft. An intense search conducted by both private parties and multiple government agencies was eventually suspended with negative results. Fossett's wreck was discovered in California's eastern Sierra Nevada mountains by a hiker almost one year later. This paper describes an independent effort to direct search efforts using probabilistic search theory and optimization techniques. Using field data from various sources, several scenarios were constructed to establish a prior distribution of the crash site. Search efforts were assessed to generate a posterior of the crash location for future search efforts.