Study on the Precautionary Indicator of Transmission Shortage for Natural Gas Pipeline Network

The surveillance and control of transmission shortage in natural gas pipeline network is one of the most important routines for any natural gas transportation company because it directly affects the cost and profit. The precondition, however, is to ascertain the appropriate ranges of transmission shortage within a certain statistics cycle, namely, the precautionary indicator. The purpose of this study is to investigate the appropriate precautionary indicator for natural gas pipeline network by establishing an uncertainty model to consider the uncertainty produced by various flow meters and other possible reasons. The accuracy of the model has been justified by the past several years` experience of a large natural gas transportation company. The results show that the rational precautionary indicator of transmission shortage for natural gas pipeline network should be ±(δQ/Q+(0.3%~0.5%)). Thereinto, ±(δQ/Q+0.3%)could be used as the light precautionary indicator of transmission shortage, and ±(δQ/Q+0.5%)could be used as the heavy one.