The case study of a contingent diffusion theory model of adoption for the products

a contingent diffusion theory model is constructed based on Norton model after researching the relations of the contingent diffusion products and the substitution for successive generations products, and experimented by the example of the contingent diffusion of mobile, mobile Internet and 3G subscribers in Taiwan. Genetic algorithms is chosen to estimate the parameters of the contingent diffusion model rather than the traditional NLS(Non-Linear Least Squares). The paper draws the conclusions from the results of the experiment in the end: the contingent diffusion model is fitted well and gets better forecasts, so the rationality of the contingent diffusion model is proved.