Study on reservoir stage operation based on the probability combination

In order to overcome the problems existing in reservoir stage operation at present, a new method was proposed based on probability combination principle in probability theory, the equal formula of the reservoir flood control standard was given specifically, and the flood-limited water level of each stage was determined by the situation that the reservoir flood control standard is not reduced. Analyzed and calculated results of the example project indicate that the water level for flood control in the end of the flood season can be raised by 1.80m at the most; as a result, the overall efficiency of the reservoir will be increased greatly. The method can provide the reference for flood control optimal operation of the built reservoir.