A study of short term forecasting of the railway freight volume in China using ARIMA and Holt-Winters models

This paper, bases on the trend and seasonal fluctuation of China's monthly railway freight, uses ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model to forecast. After comparison of forecasting results, a final freight result from January to December of 2010 is generated. After verification, the predict results of ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model, with errors lower than 4%, are preferable to be used of railway freight forecast.