Forecast of Systemic Parameter Drift Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

This essay mainly concerns on the degree of systemic parameter drift in process of product life cycle, by establishing the function of system structure and using simulation software to imitate the process of drift. It not only gets the degree of systemic parameter drift and the result of approximate distributions of system output, but also gets the sensitivity of each component part contributes to systemic parameter drift. Particularly, the reliability of systemic performance (R
_p
) is used to measure the degree of systemic parameter drift.