Bidding Prices Modeling in Colombian Electricity Market using Logistic Regression Model

The main goal of this work is to show the application of an econometric model called Logistic Regression (LR) in a study of the bidding prices in the Colombian electricity market. The LR model is used to calculate the statistical significance of some variables of the market and the influence of changes in these variables on the estimated bidding price of Generation Companies GENCOs. The methodology is used to fit the bidding prices behavior of a hydraulic agent considering some exogenous variables such as: hydrological conditions, energy demand, spot prices and competitors behavior. The model obtained with LR shows a good agreement with the real data.