The Model about Social Loss Induced by the Increasing Price of Farm Produce after Disaster

Earlier loss estimation studies were limited to investigate particular scenarios and carried out by highly specialized experts. In order to overcome the shortcomings of arbitrary and subjectivity of experts, the quantitative assessment model of the disaster loss is established in this paper. First, this paper sets up a consumer's impact model about price based on regional economics. Second, the farm produce price influence of two supply sources to their nearby regions is analyzed, when one supply area suffered from disaster such as flood and dam-break, the farm produce price influence of its nearby region can be obtained. And then, the model was improved to adapt to more supply sources. At last, the relations between social loss and farm produce price of disaster area are analyzed, and the influence model was established.