Market opportunities for micro-CHP in Flanders (Belgium)

In this study market opportunities for very smallscale (1-2kWe) micro-CHP (=muCHP) units in domestic dwellings in Flanders (Belgium) were explored. From all available muCHP technologies, the Stirling-based units seem the only ones to be very close to commercial market introduction, followed by (O)RC based units. With the scope limited to 5 years ahead, the total market potential has been estimated at 300.000-600.000 domestic dwellings. This corresponds roughly with 10-20 % of the total amount of domestic dwellings or 21-42 % of existing connections on the Flemish gas distribution network. Translated to annual sales figures, there is a potential of 23.000 to 46.000 units a year for a market ldquoat cruising speedrdquo. At current prices muCHP is economically not yet viable: unit costs should be reduced to 3.500 euro (or 5.500 euro total system cost) to have a payback time of about 5 years. Total primary energy savings (PES) potential for Flanders in an ideal market is estimated at 500 to 1.000 GWh a year and annual CO2 reduction between 75.000 and 650.000 tons. Uncertain impact on the gas network, the influence of an increasing amount of distributed generation (DG) on the utility grid, high investment costs, technological growing pains and the risk of wrong implementation are some of the barriers that still prevent a mass market implementation.