Collection and analysis of 4D intent downlink data from operational flights

Continental airlines and The MITRE corporation have collaborated in an effort to collect and analyze intent data from operational flights in the U.S. national airspace system (NAS). Flight intent in four dimensions (4D) which provides latitude, longitude, altitude and time (among other information) is being provided by continental airlines from Boeing 737-800 series aircraft equipped with GE aviation flight management system (FMS) avionics. What distinguishes this activity from earlier 4D intent downlink activities conducted in recent years is the examination of the behavior of the FMS-generated estimated time of arrival (ETA) information for upcoming points along the flight, in the absence of a required time of arrival (RTA) and the volume of the data gathered in normal, uncontrolled (by the experimenter) operations. Without the controls of an imposed RTA, the ETAs may fluctuate and could have varying levels of accuracy or utility. However, it is envisioned that 4D intent downlinks and use of ETAs will become available well before RTAs are imposed in the air traffic control (ATC) system. Therefore, the project chose to examine ETA performance in the absence of RTAs and to extend the analysis into high volumes of data from aircraft that are operated normally within the ATC system. This paper provides an overview of the project and its goals, a description of data collection; processing and analysis methods developed thus far and preliminary results. The information offers insight into a follow on phase of this project which will be the identification of operational concepts of use for FMS intent data in prediction and planning by airline operations centers (AOC) and ATC within the context of the FAA's next generation air transportation management system (NextGen).