Outage Expectancy as a Basis for Generator Reserve

Probability calculations furnisha useful means whereby the average frequency and duration of generator outages on a power system, as shown by experience records may be converted into a consistent measure of the expectancy of multiple outages upon which the provision of reserves is based. This paper gives the mathematical development of relatively simple formulas for this purpose and methods of calculation and of exhibiting the results in tangible form. Use of these formulas does not require familiarity with technical probability mathematics.