Foresight on the effect of technology advancement on the quality of life by developing narrative scenarios

Making accurate long-term prediction of our future society is difficult but it is crucial to grasp future social circumstances and technology advancements to derive proper strategic policies on technology. The aim of this study is to predict how technology advancements will change the quality of life ten years from now in Korea by using the scenario technique. Another issue under investigation was the effectiveness of applying narrative plots in future scenarios for better readability. To overcome the difficulties that arise from the multidimensional characteristics and the complex nature of foresight studies, Delphi survey results were used and several key drivers were utilized. Two different narrative scenarios on the future society of Korea were written and went under evaluation by a group of experts and a survey on the general public. Results of the evaluation imply the importance of finding the balance between making an interesting plot and comprehensively depicting the future, while the survey results show how people think about the role of technology in the quality of life. We suggest some guidelines on developing narrative scenarios for an insightful look into the future.