Variability of Predictability of the Daily Peak Load Using Lyapunov Exponent Approach : Case of Tunisian Power System

This study addresses the problem of the expected variability of predictability of the load curves in the Tunisian Company of Electricity and Gas (STEG). For this purpose, the maximum prediction horizon of the daily peak load time series was investigated using the largest Lyapunov exponent estimation. The results may explain the recent observed degradation of forecast accuracy due to the increase in air conditioning load.