An Initial Comparative Analysis of the Market Penetration Potential of Coal and Coal Derived Fuels in the U.S. Utility Industry (1985-2005)

In 1972, the U.S. electric utility industry established a focal point for all of the industry's research and development efforts by forming the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). When EPRI began, there was no alternative to relatively subjective judgment in allocating our research and development resources among competing power generation, transmission, and distribution technologies. During the last two years, we have been developing a more quantitative analytical approach to estimate the relative market penetration potential of alternative power generation systems. This paper focuses on one of these analyses; namely, a generation expansion analysis which compares the economics of various electric utility alternatives for coal utilization in the period 1985-2005. Although this is only a first iteration, the methodology developed and initial results are deemed significant.