Production Costing for Long-Range Geneartion Expansion Planning Studies

Generation expansion modeling relies upon a complex network of engineering and economic models. The core of the engineering analysis has been the loss-of-load probability techniques and the probabilistic simulation production-costing techniques. The core of the economic modeling influence has been associAted with load forecasts and market penetrations of customer alternatives. The linkage of these models within an expansion-planning framework has been, at best, strained. This paper discusses the traditional. production-costing techniques and examines a new modeling method which simplifies current procedures and extends the purview of probabilistic simulation to scoping studies. The strength of the method comes from the information developed for scoping studies. This procedure provides estimates which are completely consistent with reliability and expected generation calculations from detailed studies. Examples are developed for a synthetic utility system.