A Real-Time Probabilistic Traffic Flow Management Evaluation Tool

This paper describes research involving advanced strategic traffic flow management concepts and solutions in the national airspace system. We describe the data and software architecture of our real-time experimental software tool, ProbTFM, which is both an evaluation and a development platform for traffic flow management strategies. We next describe the engineering design of ProbTFM, including how the national airspace system, meteorological phenomena, and associated forecasts and their uncertainties are modeled. Finally we present preliminary test results comparing a probabilistic TFM concept with today's NAS