Complexity and stability of international security. A dynamic approach

The growing tendency towards complexity, instability and uncertainty in international security is analysed within the framework of a nonlinear and time-discrete dynamic model, describing the interaction between security aspects and other relevant variables from different fields. Actors in the international area are assumed to act according to certain objectives and criteria. Increasingly, military aspects are replaced by political, economic and environmental dimensions in concepts of extended security. Examples of different and, under certain circumstances, conflicting security objectives include: the prevention of military threats, improvement in the gross national product (GNP), avoidance of environmental degradation, and requirements for sustainable development. Mathematical analytical investigations revealed a route to chaos. The impact of complexity on stability is considered by increasing the number of actors and the number of interactions between them. Applications of the model include two problem areas: (1) the interaction between weapons proliferation and international control of armament and technology, and (2) the relationship between environmental degradation and international technology transfer. The analysis provides a basis for proposals to stabilize the dynamics according to security objectives.<
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