The scientific crystal ball-computer-aided forecasting

The forecasting formal procedures are written in computer programs for facilitating involved analyses and calculations. The programs contain mathematical and statistical techniques for connecting and fitting time series of variables. Resulting models are extrapolated or simulated to produce forecasts. Some programs contain expert systems and competitions for helping forecasters to make inevitable decisions. These programs are sophisticated, but have fundamental limits and flaws. The program user is seldom (made) aware of these constraints and tends to rely uncritically on the resulting forecasts. This article deals with the features, problems and limits of the use of these systems for forecasting the future.<
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