Research on A Contingent Diffusion Theory Model and Its Features Based on Genetic Algorithms

According to the features of contingent diffusion products, the limits of Bass model are analyzed. A contingent diffusion model with its extended model is constructed based on Bass model, and its structure and features are analyzed in detail. Then the wireless Internet subscribers are taken for example to build the contingent diffusion model. The parameters of the contingent diffusion model are estimated by genetic algorithms, and the diffusion rules for mobile internet users are forecasted. Finally, in comparison with Bass model and Logistic model, this contingent diffusion model provides superior fitting and better forecasting performance.