House thermal model parameter estimation method for Model Predictive Control applications

In this paper we investigate thermal network models with different model orders applied to various Dutch low-energy house types with high and low interior thermal mass and containing floor heating. Parameter estimations are performed by using data from TRNSYS simulations. The paper discusses results in relation to model order and the order which yields a sufficient level of accuracy is determined. The paper presents a semi-physical estimation method which is used to improve correlation of model parameters with physical determined values. The thermal network model can be used for various simulation studies or for Model Predictive Control (MPC) of house heating or cooling systems. The paper investigates accuracy of the model for MPC by comparing MPC-results with results from TRNSYS simulations, including ventilation heat losses.