Predicting the future: The Integrated Risk Picture

Safety can be considered to be a risk-based decision-making process. The problem is that if you don't know what your risks how can you mange them and how can you make the right decisions? Over the next 10–15 years, European Air Traffic Management (ATM) is faced with the biggest set of operational and technological changes in its history. To meet this challenge, EUROCONTROL has developed the Integrated Risk Picture (IRP) - a model which not only gives a much clearer understanding of current ATM-related risks but also is capable of predicting how those risks will change in response to the planned changes to the ATM system. This paper describes the form and uses of the IRP.