Satellite Survivability Estimates

In this paper we discuss how information on system safety margins, whether provided by a model or by test-to-failure data, can be combined into simple analytical survivability estimates expressed in terms of damage functions, i.e. probability of system survival as a function of the strength of the environment. The statistical procedures developed here are applicable to the situation where statements about survivability are based on safety margins. Examples of nuclear weapons effects where the concept of safety margins can be easily applied are: DEMP, SGEMP and TREE burnout, neutron and total dose degradation.