Probabilistic grid planning with consideration of dispersed generation and electric vehicles

One objective of grid planning for low voltage grids is to determine cable diameters of feeders. This usually involves simulating worst case scenarios to estimate peak loads, although the probability of such scenarios to actually occur is not known. Furthermore, today's grid planning needs to account for new technologies like dispersed generation and electric vehicles. A worst case approach, for example, would consider generation without any simultaneous load. However, in practical experience there is always a minimum load, which mitigates the effect of voltage rise due to generation. This publication presents a new approach to probabilistic grid planning under the consideration of risks of certain scenarios to occur. This methodology can help to plan grids more efficiently.