Estimating the Impact of Water-Supply Investment Based on CGE Model -- As a Case of Heilongjiang Province

The water-supply investment not only further strengthen conservancy facilities, but also effectively drive the development of related industries, increase social employment, contributing to the economy growth. CGE model used to evaluate the efficient of investment and its influence on water security and the national economy. The papers construct the Heilongjiang CGE model based on input-output table in 2010, by setting nine investment programs, quantitative analyze socio-economic impact of water-supply investment. The results illustrate that(1) water sector investments can boost national economic development, GDP growth of 0.03% under scenario 1, (2) the total output of the various departments receive the impact, the rising of output from better to less was: high water industry, high water tertiary industry, general water tertiary industry and construction, the decline of output was high water industry.(3) To guarantee water security, the growth rate of water-supply investment should be greater than 60%. High water industry have the fastest growing on water consumption followed by high water tertiary industry, general water tertiary industry and the construction industry, water consumption of general water industrial is falling. Sewage from high water industry have the fastest growing, followed by high water tertiary industry, general water tertiary industry and construction industry, sewage from general water industrial decline. (3)The suitable growth scale investment of Water-supply is from 60% to 70%.