Top managers' confidence, ultimate controller and firm value: An empirical study based on panel data of a shares on Shanghai stock exchange

In this paper, with the use of 2010-2012 Shanghai A-shares panel data, we divide the original sample into two groups: overconfidence group and appropriate confidence group based on the changes of top managers' shareholding ratio. Then we respectively analyze their impact on firm value, particularly explore the moderate effect of ultimate controller type. The results show that the overconfidence of top managers has a significant negative effect on firm value, and this influence is more outstanding in state controlled companies; while top managers' appropriate confidence has a positive effect on firm value, but ultimate controller type has no significant moderate effect on it.