Effects of DSS, modeling, and exogenous factors on decision qualityand confidence
Melone, N.P.; McGuire, T.W.; Chan, L.W.; Gerwing, T.A.
System Sciences, 1995. Vol. III. Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth Hawaii International Conference on
Volume 3, Issue , 3-6 Jan 1995 Page(s):152 - 159 vol.3
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/HICSS.1995.375565
Summary:118 undergraduate business students participated in an experiment
which required that they manage production and workforce with the
objective of minimizing costs using one of two forms of computer-based
DSS. Using a 2×2 design, subjects were randomly assigned to one of
four experimental conditions: the (1) presence or (2) absence of a
modeling feature, crossed with a (3) “good” or (4)
“bad” decision environment implemented as a decreasing or
increasing sales trend. Results indicate that subjects with access to a
modeling feature performed better than those without such capability;
subjects' confidence, however, was not correlated with environmental
effects or the availability of a modeling feature. We also found a
strong correlation between confidence and actual decision quality for
all conditions. All these results are in the opposite direction from
those of a previously published study using the same task but a
different DSS. Finally, we found no evidence of overconfidence, on
average, in any of our conditions
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