Can the ERS-1 scatterometer be used to forecast the inundation extent in the Pantanal wetland?

Radar backscatter measurements obtained by the ERS-1 scatterometer over the Pantanal region between November 1991 and August 1995 are investigated. During this period the inundation extent varied considerably, a relatively wet year, 1992, was followed by dry years, 1993 and 1994, while in 1995 a maximum in inundation was encountered. This interannual variation is well reflected in the NRCS measurements. Furthermore, for the northern part of the Pantanal a very high correlation was found between the increase in radar cross section and the inundation extent if a time shift of 1-2 months is applied to the scatterometer data. Thus the radar measurements may allow to predict the inundation extent since the signal in NRCS is 1-2 months ahead of the flooding.