Probabilistic production costing of diesel-wind energy conversion systems

This paper describes the development of a general probabilistic model of a diesel-wind energy conversion system (DWECS) composed of several diesel units, several wind turbines (wind farm), and battery storage feeding a load. The model allows the simulation of a diesel system with a wind farm of different wind turbine types considering system stability, and outages due to hardware failure and primary energy fluctuations. It is based on a modification of the convolution method, which considers a given penetration level selected by the utility for stability consideration. The production costs of the diesel units are then deduced from the expected energy not supplied (EENS) using a unit de-convolution in reverse economic order. A methodology is also presented to determine the size of the battery storage based on the excess wind energy available during operation, or that disconnected for stability consideration, while accounting for the charging/discharging cycles.